What:

• Increase points per loss dependent on Flight. The goal should be to make being promoted equal or advantageous to staying in a lower flight.
• Proposed: A, B, and C to be 3, 2, and 1 points per loss (see Table 1 below)

Why:

• Being promoted to A Flight can be very unforgiving and potentially have a negative effect on your overall ranking (Playoff impact and Tie-breaker impact)
• Without taking into consideration strength of field, promoted teams should typically have a 66% chance of staying in their new flight for the following series. In our league, we see:
• B -> A is between 35% and 40% (Low)
• C -> B is between 50% -> 60% (Acceptable)
• Looking at all B -> A promotions from 2008-2017 & 2022 (seasons with ONE A Flight and ONE B Flight) we see the following W-L results from teams immediately after promotion:
• 5-0: 3% (Safe)
• 4-1: 9% (Safe)
• 3-2: 14% (Safe)
• 2-3: 26% (Risk of Demotion)
• 1-4: 35% (Demotion)
• 0-5: 14% (Demotion)
• Providing more points for a loss as you advance in Flights should hopefully increase the benefit of being promoted from B -> A without significantly impacting the league
• Adjusting Points per Loss should generally not benefit teams with higher-than-average W-L records. Teams in A and B Flight with 1-4 anbd 2-3 series records should likely see the most benefit.

Why Not:

• Is it actually a significant problem?
• We may inadvertently shift the league away from wins-focused back to flight-focused
• All numbers right now are theory based and the correct balance might not be possible without fundamentally changing the league. Still need to take existing seasons and test appropriately (Try it out yourself!)
• Changing any W-L values can impact our statistics and records

Background Math / Analysis

It should be noted that all seasons are different: varying in strength of field, number of teams, and differing numbers of strong new teams being seeded in C Flight.

Formats with ONE B Flight (2 promotions per flight) and ONE A Flight

• The Series Winner team typically has a 5-0 or 4-1 record
• The Series Runner-Up team typically has a 4-1 or 3-2 record
• The 3rd Place team typically has a 3-2 record (it is possible to have 4-1 due to a 3-way tie but this is relatively rare)

Highlighted cells indicate most likely outcomes based on historical data between 2008-2017, 2022. Darker is more likely, lighter is less likely.

Based on our most common outcomes we can make the following statements after being promoted to A Flight:

• On average it is advantageous or nearly equal for Series Winners to be promoted to A Flight vs staying in B Flight with an expected points range of 49-65 (A) vs 52-59 (B)
• On average it is generally disadvantageous for runner-ups to be promoted to A Flight vs staying in B Flight with an expected points range of 38-49 (A) vs 52-59 (B)
• NOTE: We do have a slightly weird data anomaly with the runner up 4-1 record performing worse than other records. If we were to adjust to match our other columns, it would be slightly to generally disadvantageous to be promoted to A Flight vs staying in B Flight with an expected points range of 40-56 (A) vs 52-59 (B)

Highlighted cells indicate most likely outcomes based on historical data between 2008-2017, 2022. Darker is more likely, lighter is less likely.

Based on our most common outcomes we can make the following statements after being promoted to A Flight:

• On average it is advantageous or slightly above equal for Series Winners to be promoted to A Flight vs staying in B Flight with an expected points range of 58-71 (A) (+9 / +6 compared to current) vs 56-62 (B) (+4 / +3 compared to current)
• On average it is generally equal to slightly below equal for runner-ups to be promoted to A Flight vs staying in B Flight with an expected points range of 49-57 (A) vs 56-62 (B)
• NOTE: We do have a slightly weird data anomaly with the runner up 4-1 record performing worse than other records. If we were to adjust to match our other columns, it would be equal to slightly disadvantageous to be promoted to A Flight vs staying in B Flight with an expected points range of 50-63 (A) vs 56-62 (B)